The likelihood of Fred getting “close”

Tropical Storm Fred has formed off the coast of Africa as of 5AM 8/30/2015.

fred satellite image

Storms that form THIS close to Africa rarely make it to the U.S. You may hear them referred to as “fish storms” that “curve out to sea”.  That’s because the only thing these storms usually interact with are fish.

I found that only 10% of storms that form as far away as Fred make it close to the U.S.*

A couple of these storms are quite infamous – The Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 and the Great New England Hurricane of 1938.

Able in 1952 was the only hurricane that season to make landfall in the U.S. Dora in 1964 was the first time (in our short record book) Jacksonville got hurricane-force winds.

Rplot

long track 2

*10% of storms that formed east of 20W longitude made it west of 75W longitude. Fred formed at 18.9W longitude.  There were 42 total storms I found that formed east of 20W longitude.

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